This map is of the countries comprising the eight Arctic Council (AC) members: Canada; USA; Russia; Greenland (Denmark); Iceland; Norway; Sweden; and Finland. Note that 7 of the 8 AC countries are now also members of NATO.
Note also that prior to Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, Russia’s western Arctic flank effectively ran along the 30-degree Easting (in spite of Norway’s earlier NATO membership). Following events in Ukraine however, Russia now considers its western Arctic flank running along the 0-degree Easting (please see map).
This means that (1), the Baltic states (the 3 grey-shaded countries on the map) are now within the RF’s Arctic Northern Fleet’s territorial area of responsibility (TAOR) and (2), Svalbard is now 350-450 KMs inside the Northern Fleet’s TAOR”. Neither was true before the Russo-Ukraine war.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea
In terms of the global power shift under way towards the East, and its apparent institutionalisation under the BRICS’ banner, some new members of the BRICS are taking positions in the Arctic region(s). Russia has recently invited Saudi Arabia (invited to join BRICS but so far has not accepted), Iran, and the UAE (both new members) to take part in various research-oriented projects and initiatives in Svalbard, part of Norwegian sovereign territory.
The Emerging Eurasian Arctic
Arctic Advisory Associates is also well informed about Arctic LNG projects and their associated LNG market in NE Asia (Japan, and South Korea) as well as in NE China. This is intimately linked to evacuation of LNG via the Northern Sea Route, (NSR). With BRIC’s membership now extended to Suadi Arabia, UAE and Iran, investment in NE Asia, and its accelerated connectivity with Pacific Arctic (via the NSR), is already underway. Equity positions in Novatek LNG, are being discussed with BRIC’s members, as well as recent direct regional investments made by Saudi Arabia in the form of both a major refinery project and petrochemical facility in NE China (fed by Russian gas/oil). Novatek has already contracted both India and China – as BRIC’s members for (NSR) ice-breaker construction projects. Meanwhile China is working with Russia to move Northward overland via Russiam rail and Arctic rivers to reach the NSR coastline, and most significantly China’s Coast Guard has signed an MOU with Russia’s FSB (the latter overseeing Arctic/NSR activities), regarding securitisation of the NSR.
The countries identified above as Applicant, Interested and Dialogue will inevitably challenge the present governance of the region, by the Arctic Council (AC), in the next two to 5 years.
